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Adjust funding period, elektrolux stable interest rates hub. Long-term capital is still relatively scarce in the current economy funds, but the funds on deposit in financing elektrolux the supply side is still partial and short-term growth in the fall, the bond market is relatively lag also failed to provide adequate long-term sources of funds. Since the main interest rate in respect of the investment is often the long end of the interest rate, "relatively short-term" money bank assets end of the period led to a corresponding configuration of short-sighted, so a representative period of economies core rate is reduced accordingly, a shorter period is more vulnerable to economic Interference cycle and monetary policy, the volatility of the economy will be enlarged. Currently elektrolux encourage elektrolux social security, pension and other long-term funds into long-term investment in equity and debt markets very beneficial growth.
However, we think that even corporate bonds and local government bonds investment ratio to 20%, the incremental investment is still very limited. According to the latest data of the National Social Security Fund Council announced that by the end of 2014, total assets of the Fund Social Security Fund under management reached 1.52896 trillion yuan, in order to estimate the current social security fund can come up to 300 billion yuan to buy corporate bonds and local government debt. For now announced plans to purchase 1 trillion debt, the incremental funding is very limited. Still further, to 15 years to repay the debt bears a total of 1.82 trillion yuan, while the next few years there may be 5-6 trillion elektrolux of debt need replacement, elektrolux this drop in the bucket to see incremental funding of social security.
We briefly describe the flow (Fig. 1): CDB get incremental liquidity through PSL and other collateral securities, while the central bank to obtain bond assets, local governments directed elektrolux to CDB issue local government debt, after the local government to obtain financing funds to pay business Banks and other financial high interest debt in the hands of the body, after the commercial banks can obtain funding for CDB bonds, emerging bonds and other interest rate debt local government re-configuration, elektrolux whereby commercial banks' balance sheets to achieve elektrolux debt replacement, replacement elektrolux of short-term high-interest debt long-term elektrolux low-interest debt, on the other hand, the central elektrolux bank may sell foreign assets to recover the appropriate liquidity, but not necessarily elektrolux fully retracted, elektrolux whereby the asset structure of commercial banks to achieve replacement, specific performance is to reduce the foreign currency assets, increased mortgage elektrolux bond assets .
Second, CDB directional Subscription Subscription avoid regional market due to mismatch of the new regulation elektrolux is a key issue debt. Currently Subscription primary market by way of subscription proceeds, the policy is still in the early stages of trial and error, market acceptance of the debt is still uncertainty, have a high probability of economic and financial area has been relatively stable favor, we believe that the early "Just against the" accumulation of debt in the context of the current market-oriented approach, but by the new-old to resolve regional mismatch problems may exist, the debt problems of high debt and weak fiscal provinces can not be mitigated, the risk may be more localized outbreaks high, although the minister Lou Jiwei represents the central level of the local government will not reveal all the details, if some local governments to pay their debts on the way to sell the assets in the hands of local governments will be reimbursed. But we still tend to think that even without the full reveal all the details, CDB directional manner beneficial to subscribe to ease the contradiction some local governments elektrolux to pay their debts, while local governments avoid large-scale sale of assets occurs, after all, could be beneficial for the economy stability has a great influence. But the situation is chaotic issuance of how to operate regardless of the final here are an important prerequisite is that the new regulation issued debt will be important and can no longer allow "unreasonable elektrolux government endorsement" and occurs emerging debt which the government bears the responsibility to repay the must distinguish.
Third, the debt with the central bank balance sheet subscribe remodeling, open market operations are the future policy orientation. At present elektrolux the proportion of the central bank's balance sheet, the foreign currency assets of nearly 80%, which has some historical reasons, such as long-standing pattern of double surplus cheap labor costs caused by the current situation of the base is also shaken. The relatively small size of the bond market and a huge amount of foreign exchange reserves, elektrolux making the central bank's monetary policy itself face greater difficulty of the operation. Medium and long term structure of the stock of assets the central bank to adjust the necessary gradual reduction of foreign exchange assets maneuvers more assets to creditors space assets in order to achieve a balanced asset allocation and transformation elektrolux of monetary policy. The future, as the growth of the bond market, the policy will rely more on open market operations to regulate macroeconomic policy targets in the benchmark interest rate is determined by trading on the basis of interest rates affect bond markets, so as to avoid reserve requirements and re-lending policies to bring the price distortions and social costs.
Fourth, the central bank's asset replacement in the short term dollar hedge rate hike process, to prevent elektrolux capital outflows. Because of weak data and global economic stagnation wave incremental factor easing, the dollar index finished lower, early rising momentum has eased. But even if US economic data in recent repeated elektrolux the Fed to raise interest rates later this year is still high probability, the risk of global capital return to the US still exists, especially for emerging markets. If accompanied by a debt exchange CDB subscription, the central bank foreign exchange assets acquired discard rate debt "asset swap" along with the role hedge US dollar interest rates, to some extent, can prevent capital outflows, but should be noted that the reduction of foreign exchange reserves For the debt exchange is not necessarily equal, the central bank did not need to come up with so many foreign reserves in order to meet the complete replacement of the debt, we tend to think that this process is a high probability will increase the overall money supply in the economy, elektrolux to ensure steady growth of the money supply, elektrolux but in the process, may be detrimental to the export sector, so the need to wait for the operation carried out in the second quarter after the economy stabilizes.
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